The Relationship between Growth and the Environment in Beijing, Using PM2.5 Concentrations
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between income and the environment in Beijing from 2008 to 2017 using quarterly data. The indicator for environmental quality is concentrations of Particular Matter (PM) 2.5, from the Mission China Air Quality Monitoring Programme (MCAQMP), whose observation site is in the US embassy in Chaoyang District, Beijing. By adding cubic GDP and other variables consistent with the Urban Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, such as green space and the length of the road network, the result suggests an N-shaped pattern rather than the conventional inverted U shape. The per capita GDP for Beijing is currently slightly lower than the second turning point, suggesting that the degradation would become more severe as income grows, if no new development strategies are implemented in the city.
About the Authors
D. I. Jingyuan
Durham University Business School, Durham University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
L. I. Chong
School of Economics, Sichuan University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
L. Marsiliani
Durham University Business School, Durham University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Asahi, S., & Yakita, A. (2012). SOx emissions reduction policy and economic development: a case of Yokkaichi. Modern Economy, 3(01), 23
2. Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, B., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 76, 123-131
3. Bhattarai, M., & Hammig, M. (2001). Institutions and the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: a crosscountry analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia. World development, 29(6), 995-1010
4. Bloomberg. (2016). China’s Housing Bubble Wobble. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/china-s-housing-bubble-wobble
5. BP. (2017). BP Statistical Review 2017: China’s energy market in 2016. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-china-insights.pdf
6. Brajer, V., Mead, R. W., & Xiao, F. (2008). Health benefits of tunnelling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Ecological Economics, 66(4), 674-686
7. Cassady, A., Dutzik, T., & Figdor, E. (2004). More Highways, More Pollution: Road Building and Air Pollution in America’s Cities. Environment California Research and Policy Center
8. Chen, L., & Chen, S. (2015). The estimation of environmental Kuznets curve in China: nonparametric panel approach. Computational Economics, 46(3), 405-420
9. Chen, Y., Jin, G. Z., Kumar, N., & Shi, G. (2012). Gaming in air pollution data? Lessons from China. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 12(3), 1935-1682. https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1682.3227
10. Cohen, A. J., Ross Anderson, H., Ostro, B., Pandey, K. D., Krzyżanowski, M., Künzli, N., & Smith, K. (2005). The global burden of disease due to outdoor air pollution. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 68(13-14), 1301-1307
11. Cropper, M., & Griffiths, C. (1994). The interaction of population growth and environmental quality. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 250-254
12. Day, K. M., & Grafton, R. Q. (2003). Growth and the environment in Canada: An empirical analysis. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d’agroeconomie, 51(2), 197-216
13. De Keersmaeker, L., Rogiers, N., Vandekerkhove, K., De Vos, B., Roelandt, B., Cornelis, J., & Verheyen, K. (2013). Application of the ancient forest concept to Potential Natural Vegetation mapping in Flanders, a strongly altered landscape in Northern Belgium. Folia Geobotanica, 48(2), 137-162
14. De Groot, H. L., Withagen, C. A., & Minliang, Z. (2004). Dynamics of China’s regional development and pollution: an investigation into the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and development economics, 9(4), 507-537
15. Dhakal, S. (2009). Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications. Energy policy, 37(11), 4208-4219
16. Diao X., Zeng, S. X., Tam, C. M., & Tam, V. W. (2009). EKC analysis for studying economic growth and environmental quality: a case study in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 17(5), 541-548
17. Duan, F. K., He, K. B., Ma, Y. L., Yang, F. M., Yu, X. C., Cadle, S. H., & Mulawa, P. A. (2006). Concentration and chemical characteristics of PM 2.5 in Beijing, China: 2001-2002. Science of the Total Environment, 355(1), 264-275
18. EPA, D. (2009). Integrated science assessment for particulate matter. US Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC
19. EPA, D. (2017). Air Data: Air Quality Data Collected at Outdoor Monitors Across the US. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data
20. Ghanem, D., & Zhang, J. (2014). ‘Effortless Perfection:’ Do Chinese cities manipulate air pollution data? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68(2), 203-225
21. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. NBER Working Paper No. 3914. National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: 10.3386/w3914
22. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. In Garber P. (Ed.), The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
23. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377
24. Hao, Y., & Liu, Y. M. (2016). The influential factors of urban PM2.5 concentrations in China: a spatial econometric analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 1443-1453
25. Hao, Y., Zhang, Z. Y., Liao, H., & Wei, Y. M. (2015). China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020. Energy Policy, 86, 444-455
26. He, J., & Wang, H. (2012). Economic structure, development policy and environmental quality: An empirical analysis of environmental Kuznets curves with Chinese municipal data. Ecological Economics, 76, 49-59
27. He, K., Huo, H., & Zhang, Q. (2002). Urban air pollution in China: current status, characteristics, and progress. Annual review of energy and the environment, 27(1), 397-431
28. Hilton, F. H., & Levinson, A. (1998). Factoring the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from automotive lead emissions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 35(2), 126-141
29. Hossain, N., & Miyata, Y. (2012). Municipal Solid Waste Management of Toyohashi City: an Analysis by Environmental Kuznets Curve. Regional Science Inquiry, 4(2), 97-110
30. Huang, R. J., Zhang, Y., Bozzetti, C., Ho, K. F., Cao, J. J., Han, Y., & Zotter, P. (2014). High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China. Nature, 514(7521), 218-222
31. Janssen, N. A., Hoek, G., Simic-Lawson, M., Fischer, P., Van Bree, L., Ten Brink, H., & Cassee, F. R. (2011). Black carbon as an additional indicator of the adverse health effects of airborne particles compared with PM10 and PM2.5. Environmental health perspectives, 119(12), 1691-1699. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1003369
32. Jebli, M. B., Youssef, S. B., & Ozturk, I. (2016). Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries. Ecological Indicators, 60, 824-831
33. Kahn, M. E., & Zheng, S. (2016). Blue Skies over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
34. Kim, S. J., Jung, T. Y., & Kang, S. J. (2016). Regional Environmental Kuznets Curves and Their Turning Points for Air Pollutants in Korea. Korea and the World Economy, 17(3), 327-349
35. Lin, C. Y. C., & Liscow, Z. D. (2012). Endogeneity in the environmental Kuznets curve: an instrumental variables approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95(2), 268-274
36. Liu, J., & Yang, H. (2009). China fights against statistical corruption. Science, 325(5941), 675-676
37. Liu, X., Heilig, G. K., Chen, J., & Heino, M. (2007). Interactions between economic growth and environmental quality in Shenzhen, China‘s first special economic zone. Ecological Economics, 62(3), 559-570
38. Luo, Y., Chen, H., Peng, C., Yang, G., Yang, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2014, Aug 1). Relationship between air pollutants and economic development of the provincial capital cities in China during the past decade. PloS One, 9(8), e104013. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104013
39. Markandya, A., Golub, A., & Pedroso-Galinato, S. (2006). Empirical analysis of national income and SO2 emissions in selected European countries. Environmental and resource economics, 35(3), 221-257
40. Mukai, H., Tanaka, A., Fujii, T., Zeng, Y., Hong, Y., Tang, J., & Xue, D. (2001). Regional characteristics of sulfur and lead isotope ratios in the atmosphere at several Chinese urban sites. Environmental science and technology, 35(6), 1064-1071
41. Noland, R. B., & Cowart, W. A. (2000). Analysis of metropolitan highway capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel. Transportation, 27(4), 363-390
42. Orubu, C. O., & Omotor, D. G. (2011). Environmental quality and economic growth: Searching for environmental Kuznets curves for air and water pollutants in Africa. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4178-4188
43. Panayotou, T. (1992). Environmental Kuznets curves: empirical tests and policy implications. Cambridge: Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University
44. Panayotou, T. (1993). Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development. Working Paper WP238 Technology and Employment Programme, Geneva: International Labour Office
45. Panayotou, T. (1995). Environmental degradation at different stages of economic development. In Iftikhar Ahmed and Jacobus A. Doeleman (Eds.), Beyond Rio: The environmental crisis and sustainable livelihoods in the third world (13-36). ILO Studies Series. New York: St. Martin’s Press
46. Panayotou, T. (1997). Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environment and development economics, 2(4), 465-484
47. Panayotou, T. (2016). Economic growth and the environment. In N. Haenn, R. R. Wilk & A. Harnish (Eds.), The Environment in Anthropology (140-148), 2nd ed. New York: New York University Press
48. Particulates. (2018, April 11). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particulates#cite_ref-83
49. Plassmann, F., & Khanna, N. (2006). Household income and pollution: Implications for the debate about the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The Journal of Environment and Development, 15(1), 22-41
50. Renmin Website. (2017). The Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee on the Beijing Urban Master Plan (2016-2035). Retrieved from http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0927/c1001-29563621.html
51. Renmin Website. (2017). Shanghai currently does not consider easing the purchase policy. Retrieved from http://house.people.com.cn/n/2015/0316/c164220-26700302.html
52. Selden, T. M., & Song, D. (1994). Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and management, 27(2), 147-162
53. Shafik, N., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992). Economic growth and environmental quality: time-series and cross-country evidence. Policy Research Working Paper Report NumberWPS 904. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications
54. Shaw, D., Pang, A., Lin, C. C., & Hung, M. F. (2010). Economic growth and air quality in China. Environmental economics and policy studies, 12(3), 79-96
55. Shen, J. (2006). A simultaneous estimation of environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from China. China Economic Review, 17(4), 383-394
56. Sinha, A., & Bhattacharya, J. (2016). Confronting environmental quality and societal aspects: an environmental Kuznets curve analysis for Indian cities. International Journal of Green Economics, 10(1), 69-88
57. Song, M. L., Zhang, W., & Wang, S. H. (2013). Inflection point of environmental Kuznets curve in Mainland China. Energy policy, 57, 14-20
58. Song, T., Zheng, T., & Tong, L. (2008). An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: a panel cointegration approach. China Economic Review, 19(3), 381-392
59. Sørensen, M., Autrup, H., Hertel, O., Wallin, H., Knudsen, L. E., & Loft, S. (2003). Personal exposure to PM2.5 and biomarkers of DNA damage. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Biomarkers, 12(3), 191-196
60. Stern, D. I., & Zha, D. (2016). Economic growth and particulate pollution concentrations in China. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 18(3), 327-338
61. Sun, P., & Yuan, Y. (2015). Industrial Agglomeration and Environmental Degradation: Empirical Evidence in Chinese Cities. Pacific Economic Review, 20(4), 544-568
62. Tallis, M., Taylor, G., Sinnett, D., & Freer-Smith, P. (2011). Estimating the removal of atmospheric particulate pollution by the urban tree canopy of London, under current and future environments. Landscape and Urban Planning, 103(2), 129-138
63. UNEP. (2016). A Review of Air Pollution Control in Beijing: 1998-2013. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Nairobi, Kenya
64. Wang, Z., & Ye, X. (2017). Re-examining environmental Kuznets curve for China’s city-level carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Spatial Statistics, 21, 377-389
65. Xinhua Website. (2017). China is planning to develop a timetable for banned fuel vehicles. Retrieved from http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2017-09/11/c_1121641621.htm
66. Xinhua Website. (2017). Full text of Xi Jinping’s report at 19th CPC National Congress. Retrieved from http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2017-11/03/c_136725942.htm
67. Yin, S., Shen, Z., Zhou, P., Zou, X., Che, S., & Wang, W. (2011). Quantifying air pollution attenuation within urban parks: An experimental approach in Shanghai, China. Environmental pollution, 159(8), 2155-2163
68. Yu, L., Wang, G., Zhang, R., Zhang, L., Song, Y., Wu, B., & Chu, J. (2013). Characterization and source apportionment of PM2. 5 in an urban environment in Beijing. Aerosol and air quality research, 13(2), 574-583
69. Zaman, K., Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., & Raza, S. A. (2016). Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries. Tourism Management, 54, 275-283
70. Zhang, J., & Mu, Q. (2017). Air pollution and defensive expenditures: Evidence from particulate-filtering facemasks. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. (in press). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.006
71. Zhang, X., Zhao, K., & Jennings, E. T. (2016). Empirical Evidence and Determinants of Region-Based Environmental Injustice in China: Does Environmental Public Service Level Make a Difference? Social Science Quarterly, 97(5), 1082-1095
72. Zhao, X., Zhang, X., Xu, X., Xu, J., Meng, W., & Pu, W. (2009). Seasonal and diurnal variations of ambient PM2.5 concentration in urban and rural environments in Beijing. Atmospheric Environment, 43(18), 2893-2900
73. Zíková, N., Wang, Y., Yang, F., Li, X., Tian, M., & Hopke, P. K. (2016). On the source contribution to Beijing PM2.5 concentrations. Atmospheric Environment, 134, 84-95
74. Zu, Y., Zheng, Z., Zhu, G., & Jing, Y. P. (2008). Environmental effects on real-space and redshift-space galaxy clustering. The Astrophysical Journal, 686(1), 41-52
75. See for example, the country level studies by Grossman and Krueger (1995), Shafik and Bandyopadhyay (1992), Panayotou (1992, 1993 and 1995), Cropper and Griffiths (1994), Bhattarai and Hamming (2001), Markandya et al. (2006), Plassmann and Khanna (2006)
76. The percentage of population living in urban areas has increased in China from 40% in 2005, to 57.3% in 2016, with 790 million residents in urban areas (see https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS)
77. Only recently, concentrations of PM2.5 have been regulated and regularly recorded. Although some measurement of PM2.5 concentration was undertaken in the US already in the late 1990s, the US implemented daily standards in 2007, followed by Japan in 2009, Russia in 2010 and more recently by the EU and South Korea in 2015
78. See Sørensen et al. (2003), Cohen et al. (2005), US EPA (2009), Janssen et al. (2011)
79. See http://www.mlr.gov.cn/tdsc/djxx/djjc/201004/t20100401_143692.htm. Beijing has been listed as one of the main observation cities since 2008, by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development
80. Official data from China has been found not to be reliable as air quality measurements are related to the career progression opportunities of officials and therefore may be prone to manipulation (See Chen et al., 2012 and Ghanem & Zhang, 2014)
81. Other EKC studies that find an N-shaped EKC, although in a different setting, are Shafik and Bandayopadhyay (1992), Grossman and Krueger (1993), Selden and Song (1994), Panayotou (1997)
82. See Bloomberg. (2015). China Stimulus Kicks in to Help Keep 2014 Growth Near Target. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-19/china-gdp-beats-estimates-leaving-2014-expansion-close-to-target
83. See Beijing government. (2017). Beijing General Urban Plan 2020-2035. Available at http://zhengwu.beijing.gov.cn/gh/dt/t1494703.htm
84. One example is the Shougang Group, one of the largest steel companies located in Beijing that started moving to Hebei since 2005 in the preparation for the Olympic Games of 2008
85. In 2010, the districts of Dongcheng (1 in the map in Figure A) and Chongwen (3 in the map) were merged into the Dongcheng district, and the districts of Xuanwu (2 in the map) and Xicheng (4 in the map) were merged into the Xicheng district
86. One is the consolidation of the four central districts into two, Dongcheng and Xicheng, in 2008; another is the establishment of a new district, Xiong’an, in 2017
87. Panayotou (1997) found that improvements in the quality of institutions (policies) by 10% will lead to a 15% reduction in SO2 emissions. Bhattarai and Hammig (2001) found that the quality of official policies is negatively related to deforestation
88. Our dataset starts in 2008, therefore we do not have a sufficient data span to test the so-called Olympic Games effect on air pollution
89. See Independent UK. (2016). China’s economic growth remains strong but increasing risks revealed. Available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/china-economic-growth-gdp-global-economy-slowdown-stimulus-brexit-a7138111.html
90. See Bloomberg. (2016). China Banking Official Urges Cut to Required Reserve Ratio. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-28/china-banking-official-says-required-reserve-ratio-should-be-cut
91. See Bloomberg. (2018). China to Ease Bad-Loan Provision Rules to Support Growth. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/china-is-said-to-ease-bad-loan-provision-rules-to-support-growth
Review
For citations:
Jingyuan D.I., Chong L.I., Marsiliani L. The Relationship between Growth and the Environment in Beijing, Using PM2.5 Concentrations. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2018;6(2):5-18. (In Russ.)
Email this article 