Взаимосвязь между экономическим ростом и окружающей средой в Пекине на основе показателя PM2.5

Полный текст:


Аннотация

Это исследование изучает взаимосвязь между доходом и окружающей средой в Пекине за период 2008-2017 гг., используя квартальные данные. Состояние окружающей среды измеряется показателем PM2.5, данные которого были получены при помощи программы контроля качества воздуха в Китае (Mission China air quality monitoring programme), метеоплощадка которой находится в посольстве США в Пекине (район Чаоян). Используя показатель ВВП, возведенный в третью степень, и переменные, которые согласуются с экологической кривой Кузнеца, такие как площадь зеленых насаждений и длина дорожной сети, получен результат, который показывает, что, скорее всего, существует N-образная кривая зависимости в отличие от традиционной U-образной кривой. В 2015 г. в Пекине ВВП на душу населения был немного выше, чем нижний предел второй критической точки, из чего можно сделать вывод, что с увеличением дохода населения ухудшение состояния окружающей среды будет все серьезнее, если не будут осуществлены стратегические меры по развитию города.

Об авторах

D. I. Jingyuan
Бизнес школа Даремского университета
Россия


L. I. Chong
Школа экономики, Синхуа университет
Россия


L. Marsiliani
Бизнес школа Даремского университета
Россия


Список литературы

1. Asahi, S., & Yakita, A. (2012). SOx emissions reduction policy and economic development: a case of Yokkaichi. Modern Economy, 3(01), 23

2. Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, B., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 76, 123-131

3. Bhattarai, M., & Hammig, M. (2001). Institutions and the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: a crosscountry analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia. World development, 29(6), 995-1010

4. Bloomberg. (2016). China’s Housing Bubble Wobble. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/china-s-housing-bubble-wobble

5. BP. (2017). BP Statistical Review 2017: China’s energy market in 2016. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-china-insights.pdf

6. Brajer, V., Mead, R. W., & Xiao, F. (2008). Health benefits of tunnelling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Ecological Economics, 66(4), 674-686

7. Cassady, A., Dutzik, T., & Figdor, E. (2004). More Highways, More Pollution: Road Building and Air Pollution in America’s Cities. Environment California Research and Policy Center

8. Chen, L., & Chen, S. (2015). The estimation of environmental Kuznets curve in China: nonparametric panel approach. Computational Economics, 46(3), 405-420

9. Chen, Y., Jin, G. Z., Kumar, N., & Shi, G. (2012). Gaming in air pollution data? Lessons from China. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 12(3), 1935-1682. https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1682.3227

10. Cohen, A. J., Ross Anderson, H., Ostro, B., Pandey, K. D., Krzyżanowski, M., Künzli, N., & Smith, K. (2005). The global burden of disease due to outdoor air pollution. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 68(13-14), 1301-1307

11. Cropper, M., & Griffiths, C. (1994). The interaction of population growth and environmental quality. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 250-254

12. Day, K. M., & Grafton, R. Q. (2003). Growth and the environment in Canada: An empirical analysis. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d’agroeconomie, 51(2), 197-216

13. De Keersmaeker, L., Rogiers, N., Vandekerkhove, K., De Vos, B., Roelandt, B., Cornelis, J., & Verheyen, K. (2013). Application of the ancient forest concept to Potential Natural Vegetation mapping in Flanders, a strongly altered landscape in Northern Belgium. Folia Geobotanica, 48(2), 137-162

14. De Groot, H. L., Withagen, C. A., & Minliang, Z. (2004). Dynamics of China’s regional development and pollution: an investigation into the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and development economics, 9(4), 507-537

15. Dhakal, S. (2009). Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications. Energy policy, 37(11), 4208-4219

16. Diao X., Zeng, S. X., Tam, C. M., & Tam, V. W. (2009). EKC analysis for studying economic growth and environmental quality: a case study in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 17(5), 541-548

17. Duan, F. K., He, K. B., Ma, Y. L., Yang, F. M., Yu, X. C., Cadle, S. H., & Mulawa, P. A. (2006). Concentration and chemical characteristics of PM 2.5 in Beijing, China: 2001-2002. Science of the Total Environment, 355(1), 264-275

18. EPA, D. (2009). Integrated science assessment for particulate matter. US Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC

19. EPA, D. (2017). Air Data: Air Quality Data Collected at Outdoor Monitors Across the US. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data

20. Ghanem, D., & Zhang, J. (2014). ‘Effortless Perfection:’ Do Chinese cities manipulate air pollution data? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68(2), 203-225

21. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. NBER Working Paper No. 3914. National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: 10.3386/w3914

22. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. In Garber P. (Ed.), The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press

23. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377

24. Hao, Y., & Liu, Y. M. (2016). The influential factors of urban PM2.5 concentrations in China: a spatial econometric analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 1443-1453

25. Hao, Y., Zhang, Z. Y., Liao, H., & Wei, Y. M. (2015). China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020. Energy Policy, 86, 444-455

26. He, J., & Wang, H. (2012). Economic structure, development policy and environmental quality: An empirical analysis of environmental Kuznets curves with Chinese municipal data. Ecological Economics, 76, 49-59

27. He, K., Huo, H., & Zhang, Q. (2002). Urban air pollution in China: current status, characteristics, and progress. Annual review of energy and the environment, 27(1), 397-431

28. Hilton, F. H., & Levinson, A. (1998). Factoring the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from automotive lead emissions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 35(2), 126-141

29. Hossain, N., & Miyata, Y. (2012). Municipal Solid Waste Management of Toyohashi City: an Analysis by Environmental Kuznets Curve. Regional Science Inquiry, 4(2), 97-110

30. Huang, R. J., Zhang, Y., Bozzetti, C., Ho, K. F., Cao, J. J., Han, Y., & Zotter, P. (2014). High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China. Nature, 514(7521), 218-222

31. Janssen, N. A., Hoek, G., Simic-Lawson, M., Fischer, P., Van Bree, L., Ten Brink, H., & Cassee, F. R. (2011). Black carbon as an additional indicator of the adverse health effects of airborne particles compared with PM10 and PM2.5. Environmental health perspectives, 119(12), 1691-1699. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1003369

32. Jebli, M. B., Youssef, S. B., & Ozturk, I. (2016). Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries. Ecological Indicators, 60, 824-831

33. Kahn, M. E., & Zheng, S. (2016). Blue Skies over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

34. Kim, S. J., Jung, T. Y., & Kang, S. J. (2016). Regional Environmental Kuznets Curves and Their Turning Points for Air Pollutants in Korea. Korea and the World Economy, 17(3), 327-349

35. Lin, C. Y. C., & Liscow, Z. D. (2012). Endogeneity in the environmental Kuznets curve: an instrumental variables approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95(2), 268-274

36. Liu, J., & Yang, H. (2009). China fights against statistical corruption. Science, 325(5941), 675-676

37. Liu, X., Heilig, G. K., Chen, J., & Heino, M. (2007). Interactions between economic growth and environmental quality in Shenzhen, China‘s first special economic zone. Ecological Economics, 62(3), 559-570

38. Luo, Y., Chen, H., Peng, C., Yang, G., Yang, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2014, Aug 1). Relationship between air pollutants and economic development of the provincial capital cities in China during the past decade. PloS One, 9(8), e104013. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104013

39. Markandya, A., Golub, A., & Pedroso-Galinato, S. (2006). Empirical analysis of national income and SO2 emissions in selected European countries. Environmental and resource economics, 35(3), 221-257

40. Mukai, H., Tanaka, A., Fujii, T., Zeng, Y., Hong, Y., Tang, J., & Xue, D. (2001). Regional characteristics of sulfur and lead isotope ratios in the atmosphere at several Chinese urban sites. Environmental science and technology, 35(6), 1064-1071

41. Noland, R. B., & Cowart, W. A. (2000). Analysis of metropolitan highway capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel. Transportation, 27(4), 363-390

42. Orubu, C. O., & Omotor, D. G. (2011). Environmental quality and economic growth: Searching for environmental Kuznets curves for air and water pollutants in Africa. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4178-4188

43. Panayotou, T. (1992). Environmental Kuznets curves: empirical tests and policy implications. Cambridge: Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University

44. Panayotou, T. (1993). Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development. Working Paper WP238 Technology and Employment Programme, Geneva: International Labour Office

45. Panayotou, T. (1995). Environmental degradation at different stages of economic development. In Iftikhar Ahmed and Jacobus A. Doeleman (Eds.), Beyond Rio: The environmental crisis and sustainable livelihoods in the third world (13-36). ILO Studies Series. New York: St. Martin’s Press

46. Panayotou, T. (1997). Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environment and development economics, 2(4), 465-484

47. Panayotou, T. (2016). Economic growth and the environment. In N. Haenn, R. R. Wilk & A. Harnish (Eds.), The Environment in Anthropology (140-148), 2nd ed. New York: New York University Press

48. Particulates. (2018, April 11). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particulates#cite_ref-83

49. Plassmann, F., & Khanna, N. (2006). Household income and pollution: Implications for the debate about the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The Journal of Environment and Development, 15(1), 22-41

50. Renmin Website. (2017). The Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee on the Beijing Urban Master Plan (2016-2035). Retrieved from http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0927/c1001-29563621.html

51. Renmin Website. (2017). Shanghai currently does not consider easing the purchase policy. Retrieved from http://house.people.com.cn/n/2015/0316/c164220-26700302.html

52. Selden, T. M., & Song, D. (1994). Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and management, 27(2), 147-162

53. Shafik, N., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992). Economic growth and environmental quality: time-series and cross-country evidence. Policy Research Working Paper Report NumberWPS 904. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications

54. Shaw, D., Pang, A., Lin, C. C., & Hung, M. F. (2010). Economic growth and air quality in China. Environmental economics and policy studies, 12(3), 79-96

55. Shen, J. (2006). A simultaneous estimation of environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from China. China Economic Review, 17(4), 383-394

56. Sinha, A., & Bhattacharya, J. (2016). Confronting environmental quality and societal aspects: an environmental Kuznets curve analysis for Indian cities. International Journal of Green Economics, 10(1), 69-88

57. Song, M. L., Zhang, W., & Wang, S. H. (2013). Inflection point of environmental Kuznets curve in Mainland China. Energy policy, 57, 14-20

58. Song, T., Zheng, T., & Tong, L. (2008). An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: a panel cointegration approach. China Economic Review, 19(3), 381-392

59. Sørensen, M., Autrup, H., Hertel, O., Wallin, H., Knudsen, L. E., & Loft, S. (2003). Personal exposure to PM2.5 and biomarkers of DNA damage. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Biomarkers, 12(3), 191-196

60. Stern, D. I., & Zha, D. (2016). Economic growth and particulate pollution concentrations in China. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 18(3), 327-338

61. Sun, P., & Yuan, Y. (2015). Industrial Agglomeration and Environmental Degradation: Empirical Evidence in Chinese Cities. Pacific Economic Review, 20(4), 544-568

62. Tallis, M., Taylor, G., Sinnett, D., & Freer-Smith, P. (2011). Estimating the removal of atmospheric particulate pollution by the urban tree canopy of London, under current and future environments. Landscape and Urban Planning, 103(2), 129-138

63. UNEP. (2016). A Review of Air Pollution Control in Beijing: 1998-2013. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Nairobi, Kenya

64. Wang, Z., & Ye, X. (2017). Re-examining environmental Kuznets curve for China’s city-level carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Spatial Statistics, 21, 377-389

65. Xinhua Website. (2017). China is planning to develop a timetable for banned fuel vehicles. Retrieved from http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2017-09/11/c_1121641621.htm

66. Xinhua Website. (2017). Full text of Xi Jinping’s report at 19th CPC National Congress. Retrieved from http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2017-11/03/c_136725942.htm

67. Yin, S., Shen, Z., Zhou, P., Zou, X., Che, S., & Wang, W. (2011). Quantifying air pollution attenuation within urban parks: An experimental approach in Shanghai, China. Environmental pollution, 159(8), 2155-2163

68. Yu, L., Wang, G., Zhang, R., Zhang, L., Song, Y., Wu, B., & Chu, J. (2013). Characterization and source apportionment of PM2. 5 in an urban environment in Beijing. Aerosol and air quality research, 13(2), 574-583

69. Zaman, K., Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., & Raza, S. A. (2016). Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries. Tourism Management, 54, 275-283

70. Zhang, J., & Mu, Q. (2017). Air pollution and defensive expenditures: Evidence from particulate-filtering facemasks. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. (in press). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.006

71. Zhang, X., Zhao, K., & Jennings, E. T. (2016). Empirical Evidence and Determinants of Region-Based Environmental Injustice in China: Does Environmental Public Service Level Make a Difference? Social Science Quarterly, 97(5), 1082-1095

72. Zhao, X., Zhang, X., Xu, X., Xu, J., Meng, W., & Pu, W. (2009). Seasonal and diurnal variations of ambient PM2.5 concentration in urban and rural environments in Beijing. Atmospheric Environment, 43(18), 2893-2900

73. Zíková, N., Wang, Y., Yang, F., Li, X., Tian, M., & Hopke, P. K. (2016). On the source contribution to Beijing PM2.5 concentrations. Atmospheric Environment, 134, 84-95

74. Zu, Y., Zheng, Z., Zhu, G., & Jing, Y. P. (2008). Environmental effects on real-space and redshift-space galaxy clustering. The Astrophysical Journal, 686(1), 41-52

75. See for example, the country level studies by Grossman and Krueger (1995), Shafik and Bandyopadhyay (1992), Panayotou (1992, 1993 and 1995), Cropper and Griffiths (1994), Bhattarai and Hamming (2001), Markandya et al. (2006), Plassmann and Khanna (2006)

76. The percentage of population living in urban areas has increased in China from 40% in 2005, to 57.3% in 2016, with 790 million residents in urban areas (see https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS)

77. Only recently, concentrations of PM2.5 have been regulated and regularly recorded. Although some measurement of PM2.5 concentration was undertaken in the US already in the late 1990s, the US implemented daily standards in 2007, followed by Japan in 2009, Russia in 2010 and more recently by the EU and South Korea in 2015

78. See Sørensen et al. (2003), Cohen et al. (2005), US EPA (2009), Janssen et al. (2011)

79. See http://www.mlr.gov.cn/tdsc/djxx/djjc/201004/t20100401_143692.htm. Beijing has been listed as one of the main observation cities since 2008, by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

80. Official data from China has been found not to be reliable as air quality measurements are related to the career progression opportunities of officials and therefore may be prone to manipulation (See Chen et al., 2012 and Ghanem & Zhang, 2014)

81. Other EKC studies that find an N-shaped EKC, although in a different setting, are Shafik and Bandayopadhyay (1992), Grossman and Krueger (1993), Selden and Song (1994), Panayotou (1997)

82. See Bloomberg. (2015). China Stimulus Kicks in to Help Keep 2014 Growth Near Target. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-19/china-gdp-beats-estimates-leaving-2014-expansion-close-to-target

83. See Beijing government. (2017). Beijing General Urban Plan 2020-2035. Available at http://zhengwu.beijing.gov.cn/gh/dt/t1494703.htm

84. One example is the Shougang Group, one of the largest steel companies located in Beijing that started moving to Hebei since 2005 in the preparation for the Olympic Games of 2008

85. In 2010, the districts of Dongcheng (1 in the map in Figure A) and Chongwen (3 in the map) were merged into the Dongcheng district, and the districts of Xuanwu (2 in the map) and Xicheng (4 in the map) were merged into the Xicheng district

86. One is the consolidation of the four central districts into two, Dongcheng and Xicheng, in 2008; another is the establishment of a new district, Xiong’an, in 2017

87. Panayotou (1997) found that improvements in the quality of institutions (policies) by 10% will lead to a 15% reduction in SO2 emissions. Bhattarai and Hammig (2001) found that the quality of official policies is negatively related to deforestation

88. Our dataset starts in 2008, therefore we do not have a sufficient data span to test the so-called Olympic Games effect on air pollution

89. See Independent UK. (2016). China’s economic growth remains strong but increasing risks revealed. Available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/china-economic-growth-gdp-global-economy-slowdown-stimulus-brexit-a7138111.html

90. See Bloomberg. (2016). China Banking Official Urges Cut to Required Reserve Ratio. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-28/china-banking-official-says-required-reserve-ratio-should-be-cut

91. See Bloomberg. (2018). China to Ease Bad-Loan Provision Rules to Support Growth. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/china-is-said-to-ease-bad-loan-provision-rules-to-support-growth


Дополнительные файлы

Для цитирования: Jingyuan D.I., Chong L.I., Marsiliani L. Взаимосвязь между экономическим ростом и окружающей средой в Пекине на основе показателя PM2.5. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2018;6(2):5-18.

For citation: Jingyuan D.I., Chong L.I., Marsiliani L. The Relationship between Growth and the Environment in Beijing, Using PM2.5 Concentrations. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2018;6(2):5-18. (In Russ.)

Просмотров: 36


Creative Commons License
Контент доступен под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2308-944Х (Print)