Налоговые поступления, инфляция и экономический рост: взгляд из Ганы

Макроэкономическая политика Ганы на протяжении многих лет приводила к медленному экономическому росту страны. Необходимы пересмотр политики макроэкономического контроля и проведение прагматичной политики, способствующей экономическому росту, что должно стать приоритетом для политиков при разработке экономических планов.

Цель данной статьи — изучить влияние ключевых факторов, таких как налоговые поступления, на экономический рост в Гане и интерактивное влияние инфляции на экономику.

Авторы использовали методы объяснительного исследования и количественные подходы для анализа исторических экономических данных по Гане. В данном исследовании рассматривается связь между налоговыми поступлениями и экономическим ростом. Кроме того, в нем анализируется мультипликативная роль инфляции во взаимосвязи между налоговыми поступлениями и экономическим ростом в Гане. В исследовании используются вторичные данные временных рядов, собранные за 19 лет, с 2005 по 2023 г., и применяется авторегрессионное тестирование с распределенным лагом и коинтеграционной оценкой для анализа роста налоговых поступлений, экономического роста, прямых иностранных инвестиций, учетной ставки, инфляции и государственных расходов.

Результаты показали, что темпы роста налоговых поступлений имеют статистически значимую положительную связь с экономическим ростом как в краткосрочной, так и в долгосрочной перспективе. Кроме того, исследование выявило статистически значимый отрицательный сдерживающий эффект инфляции на взаимосвязь между ростом налоговых поступлений и экономическим ростом как в среднесрочной, так и в долгосрочной перспективе. Было показано, что влияние налоговых поступлений на экономический рост более интенсивно в краткосрочной перспективе, чем в долгосрочной.

Основной вывод статьи заключается в том, что рост налоговых поступлений в Гане больше способствует экономическому росту в краткосрочной перспективе, чем в долгосрочной. Кроме того, рост стоимости товаров и услуг сдерживает экономический рост, а инфляция снижает усиливающий эффект налоговых поступлений на экономический рост.

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