Взаимосвязь финансового развития и экономического роста в Нигерии

Целью данного исследования является изучение сложной взаимосвязи между финансовым развитием и экономическим ростом в Нигерии, основанное на анализе краткосрочной и долгосрочной динамики комплексных временных рядов за период 1981–2023 гг. Исследование направлено на оценку влияния финансового развития на экономический рост с учетом важнейших макроэкономических факторов.

В исследовании используется надежный методологический подход с применением модели авторегрессионного распределенного лага (ARDL), дополненной тестированием границ. Для получения комплексной экономической оценки исследование включает ряд контрольных переменных, в том числе государственные расходы, инвестиции, открытость торговли, цены на нефть и численность рабочей силы.

Эмпирические результаты показывают сложную взаимосвязь между финансовым развитием и экономическим ростом в Нигерии. Несмотря на подтверждение долгосрочной коинтеграции между переменными, индекс финансового развития не демонстрирует статистически значимого влияния на экономический рост ни в краткосрочных, ни в долгосрочных сценариях. Тем не менее рабочая сила выступает в качестве основного катализатора экономического роста с ростом на 1%, связанным с существенным ростом реального валового внутреннего продукта (ВВП) на 16,77% в краткосрочной перспективе и ростом на 1,48% — в долгосрочной.

Выводы исследования ставят под вопрос общепринятое представление о взаимосвязи финансов и экономического роста в развивающихся странах.

Полученные результаты подчеркивают важную роль человеческого капитала в развитии экономики Нигерии, одновременно выявляя потенциальную неэффективность в развитии финансового сектора и распределении капитала. Данное исследование вносит вклад в научную дискуссию о финансовом развитии и экономическом росте, предоставляя всесторонний современный анализ экономического ландшафта Нигерии.

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