Preview

Review of Business and Economics Studies

Расширенный поиск

Экономические факторы, влияющие на цены на жилье в Пакистане

https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2023-11-3-49-67

Аннотация

Целью данного исследования является изучение факторов, влияющих на цены на жилье в Пакистане. Автор использовал ежемесячные данные за период 2011–2020 гг., которые были получены из разных источников: данные о ценах на жилье, публикуемые на сайте zameen.com, ставка межбанковского предложения в Карачи (KIBOR) как показатель денежно-кредитной политики, индекс потребительских цен в качестве показателя инфляции и данные о валютном курсе государственного банка Пакистана. Были использованы различные методы, такие как метод авторегрессии и распределенного лага (ARDL), сравнительный анализ и дедуктивный анализ. Перед использованием метода ARDL была выбрана подходящая продолжительность лага, которая составила 11 месяцев. Различные диагностические тесты показали устойчивость модели, отсутствие автокорреляции и структурных разрывов. Автор пришел к выводу, что ставка KIBOR отрицательно влияет на цены на жилье, в то время как инфляция и обменный курс влияют на цены на жилье положительно.

Об авторе

М. Т. Хан
Университет Абдул Вали Хана
Пакистан

Мухаммад Тарик Хан — соискатель степени PhD по специальности «экономика», магистр по специальности «экономика»

Мардан



Список литературы

1. Bower R. S., Lessard D. R. An operational approach to risk-screening. The Journal of Finance. 1973;28(2):321–37. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2978305 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

2. Meltzer A. H. Credit availability and economic decisions: Some evidence from the mortgage and housing markets. The Journal of Finance. 1974;29(3):763–77. UR: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2978591 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

3. Woodford M., Walsh C. E. Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics. 2005;9(3):462–468. DOI: 10.1017.S 1365100505040253

4. Case K. E., Shiller R. J. Is there a bubble in the housing market? Brookings papers on economic activity. 2003;2003(2):299–362. URL: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/11/article/51240/summary (accessed on 20.07.2023).

5. Berlemann M., Freese J. Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland. International Economics and Economic Policy. 2013;10:469–90. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10368–012–0222–7 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

6. Umar M., Akhtar M., Shafiq M., Rao Z. U. Impact of monetary policy on house prices: case of Pakistan. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. 2019;13(3):503–12. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA‑12–2017–0106 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

7. Fraz A. Real estate myths in Pakistan and the truth behind them. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. 2021. URL: https://pide.org.pk/research/real-estate-myths-in-pakistan-and-the-truth-behindthem/ (accessed on 20.07.2023).

8. Wahid A., Kowalewski O., Mantell E. H. Determinants of the prices of residential properties in Pakistan. Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 2023;41(1):35–49. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF‑06–2021–0051

9. Mariyam S., Malik W. S. The role of monetary policy in transmission of asset prices into goods prices. Journal of Applied Economics and Business studies. 2020;4(1):143–67. URL: https://pepri.edu.pk/jaebs/index.php/files/article/view/article‑2041–7 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

10. Shrestha M. B., Bhatta G. R. Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science. 2018;4(2):71–89. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405918817300405 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

11. Wadud I. M., Bashar O. H., Ahmed H. J. Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia. Journal of Policy Modeling. 2012;34(6):849–63. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893812000853 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

12. Miles D. Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies. European Economic Review. 1992;36(5):1093–127. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0014292192900482 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

13. Mishkin F. S. The transmission mechanism and the role of asset prices in monetary policy. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper 8617. DOI: 10.3386/w8617

14. Eickmeier S., Hofmann B. Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im) balances. Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2010, 07. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2785372 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

15. Assenmacher-Wesche K., Gerlach S. Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on property prices. Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, University of Frankfurt. 2010. URL: http://www.riksbank.se/Upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_foa/2009/6_8nov/Assenmacher-Wesche-Gerlach.pdfGotooriginalsource.2010 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

16. Musso A., Neri S., Stracca L. Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area? Journal of Banking & Finance. 2011;35(11):3019–41. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611001439 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

17. Xu X. E., Chen T. The effect of monetary policy on real estate price growth in China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. 2012;20(1):62–77. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X1100045X (accessed on 20.07.2023).

18. Wu L., Bian Y. Housing, consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second-and third-tier cities in China? Applied Economics Letters. 2018;25(15):1107–1111. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2017.1412069 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

19. Torres J. A., Restrepo S. S. Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the Colombian house prices. Vniversitas Economica. 2016;15124. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/JuanEspinosaTorres/publication/305316647_Asymmetric_Effects_of_Monetary_Policy_on_the_Colombian_House_Prices/links/5788f09408ae254b1ddce60e/Asymmetric-Effects-of-Monetary-Policy-on-the-Colombian-House-Prices.pdf (accessed on 20.07.2023).

20. Yıldırım M. O., İvrendi M. House prices and the macroeconomic environment in Turkey: The examination of a dynamic relationship. Economic Annals. 2017;62(215):81–110. URL: https://doiserbia.nb.rs/Article.aspx?id=0013–32641715081Y (accessed on 20.07.2023).

21. Kok S. H., Ismail N. W., Lee C. The sources of house price changes in Malaysia. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. 2018;11(2):335–55. URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJHMA‑04–2017–0039/full/html (accessed on 20.07.2023).

22. Valadkhani A., Nguyen J., O’Brien M. Asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate: evidence from the Australian capital cities. Applied Economics. 2019;51(53):578192. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2019.1619026 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

23. Kutlu Ş. Ş. The Role of House Prices in Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from Turkish Economy. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi. 2021;28(3):581–594. URL: https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.878337 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

24. Naikoo M. W., Ahmed F., Ishtiaq M. Monetary policy and housing prices dynamics in India. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics. 2021;14(27):47–61. URL: https://www.ejbe.org/index.php/EJBE/article/view/511 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

25. Chen S. S., Lin T. Y. Revisiting the Link between House Prices and Monetary Policy. The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics. 2021;22(2):481–515. URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm‑2021–0099

26. Romer C. D., Romer D. H. A new measure of monetary shocks: Derivation and implications. American economic review. 2004;94(4):1055–1084. URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0002828042002651 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

27. Pesaran M. H., Shin Y., Smith R. J. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics. 2001;16(3):289–326. URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.616 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

28. Magnus F. J., Oteng-Abayie E. F. Bounds testing approach: an examination of foreign direct investment, trade, and growth relationships. American Journal of Applied Sciences, Forthcoming. 2006. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=927169

29. Dickey D. A., Fuller W. A. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society. 1981:1057–72. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912517 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

30. Phillips P. C., Perron P. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika. 1988;75(2):335–346. URL: https://academic.oup.com/biomet/article-abstract/75/2/335/292919 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

31. Miles W., Zhu X. Housing and the changing impact of monetary policy. International Review of Economics & Finance. 2023;86:587–603. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056023001193 (accessed on 20.07.2023).

32. Wooldridge J. M. Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Cengage learning; 2015; Sep.30. URL: https://books.google.com.pk/books?id=wUF4BwAAQBAJ&lpg=PR3&ots=cAZxVDkrfl&dq=Wooldridge%2C%20J.%20M.%20(2015).%C2%A0Introductory%20econometrics%3A%20A%20modern%20approach.%20Cengage%20learning.%20&lr&pg=PR3#v=onepage&q=Wooldridge,%20J.%20M.%20(2015).%C2%A0Introductory%20econometrics:%20A%20modern%20approach.%20Cengage%-20learning.&f=false (accessed on 20.07.2023).

33. Pesaran M. H., Shin Y. An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Cambridge, UK: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge; 1995; Mar.3. URL: https://pure.york.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/an-autoregressive-distributed-lag-modelling-approach-to-cointegra (accessed on 20.07.2023).


Рецензия

Для цитирования:


Хан М.Т. Экономические факторы, влияющие на цены на жилье в Пакистане. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2023;11(3):49-67. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2023-11-3-49-67

For citation:


Khan M.T. Economic Factors Influencing Housing Prices in Pakistan. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2023;11(3):49-67. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2023-11-3-49-67



Creative Commons License
Контент доступен под лицензией Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International.


ISSN 2308-944X (Print)
ISSN 2311-0279 (Online)