Перспективы Трансатлантического соглашения о зоне свободной торговли между ЕС и США после Брекзита

Я. В. Раудсепп

doi:10.26794/2308-944X-2019-7-4-45-71

Перспективы Трансатлантического соглашения о зоне свободной торговли между ЕС и США после Брекзита

Я. В. Раудсепп

https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2019-7-4-45-71

Полный текст:

Аннотация

В данной статье автор представляет правовую природу и экономические последствия соглашений о свободной торговле (FTA или RTS по терминологии ВТО) для экономик государств-членов и третьих стран. Вторая цель заключалась в оценке экономического эффекта TAFTA (TTIP) для Соединенных Штатов и Европейского Союза в случае Brexit, а также некоторого потенциального воздействия на третьи страны и альтернативные FTA в качестве противовесов TTIP. Для выявления математических и статистических зависимостей автор построил корреляционные и регрессионные модели между зависимыми и независимыми переменными. Зависимыми переменными являются ВВП, независимыми переменными — ВВП на душу населения, безработица, экспорт и импорт, индекс цен и инвестиции, а также участие страны в зоне свободной торговли. Для оценки независимой переменной (в частности, участия в зоне свободной торговли) автор использовал “фиктивную переменную” со значениями “0” в течение десяти лет до вступления в зону свободной торговли и “1” в течение десяти лет после вступления конкретной страны в зону свободной торговли. Общий вывод, вытекающий из исследования, заключается в том, что RTS позволяет многим странам вести переговоры и достигать льготных условий торговли в гораздо большей степени, чем это возможно на многостороннем уровне.

Ключ. слова

Brexit, ЕС, торговое соглашение, НАФТА, ВТО, соглашение по ТБТ,

Об авторе

Я. В. Раудсепп

Финансовый университет
Россия

Ян Витальевич Раудсепп

Студент магистратуры, Международный финансовый факультет, Департамент экономической теории

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Дополнительные файлы

Для цитирования: Раудсепп Я.В. Перспективы Трансатлантического соглашения о зоне свободной торговли между ЕС и США после Брекзита. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2019;7(4):45-71. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2019-7-4-45-71

For citation: Raudsepp J. Perspectives of the Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the US after BREXIT. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2019;7(4):45-71. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2019-7-4-45-71

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