Изучение взаимосвязи между налоговыми поступлениями и экономическим ростом в Индонезии с помощью модели эндогенного роста

Целью данного исследования является анализ причинно-следственной связи между налоговыми поступлениями и экономическим ростом в Индонезии с использованием экономической модели эндогенного роста. Для анализа причинно-следственной связи применялась многомерная модель с применением подхода векторной авторегрессии, а в качестве теста — метод Тода–Ямамото. Результаты исследования временных рядов с 1983 по 2021 г. показывают, что контрольные переменные —  капитал, труд, прямые иностранные инвестиции, государственные расходы, инфляция и обменные курсы —  отражают инновационные механизмы и технический прогресс или общую производительность факторов производства в модели эндогенного роста, которая отражает взаимосвязь между налоговыми поступлениями и экономическим ростом в Индонезии. Результаты теста причинно-следственной связи с использованием метода Тоды–Ямамото показывают, что налоговые поступления и экономический рост влияют друг на друга; налоговые поступления способствуют стимулированию экономического роста и в то же время более высокий экономический рост приводит к увеличению налоговых поступлений. Авторы пришли к выводу, что в дополнение к налоговым поступлениям, вызывающим или стимулирующим экономический рост посредством финансирования экономической деятельности, возросший экономический рост и активность также увеличат объем налоговых поступлений, как из налоговой базы, так и из номинальных налоговых поступлений, определяемых экономическим ростом.

1. Keynes J. M. The general theory of employment, interest, and money. International Relations and Security Network. ISN-ETH Zurich; 1936. DOI: 10.2307/2278703

2. Schiller B.R, Gebhardt K. Essentials of economics. 11th ed. The McGraw-Hill Series Economics; 2005.

3. Yossinomita Y. Tax policy in limiting the consumption of luxury goods. Review of Economics and Finance. 2022;20(1):165–171. DOI: 10.55365/1923.x2022.20.19

4. Yossinomita Y., Haryadi, Hodijah S. Determining the future direction and amount of tax revenue in Indonesia using an error correction model (ECM). Ekonomika. 2024;103(1):56–77. DOI: 10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.4

5. Haryadi H., Umiyati E., Dhora S. T. Competitiveness and export development strategy for Indonesia’s creative economy sector in the ASEAN market. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah. 2021;9(2):127–138. DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v9i2.11832

6. Stiglitz J. E. Some lessons from the East Asian miracle. World Bank Research Observer. 1996;11(2):151–177. DOI: 10.1093/wbro/11.2.151

7. Syadullah M., Wibowo T. Governance and tax revenue in ASEAN countries. Journal of Social and Development Sciences. 2015;6(2):76–88. DOI: 10.22610/jsds.v6i2.845

8. Alesina A., Perotti R. Fiscal adjustments in OECD countries: composition and macroeconomic effects. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 1996;(5730; August).

9. Blanchard O., Perotti R. An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 1999;(7269; July).

10. Easterly W., Rebelo S. Fiscal policy and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics. 1993;32(3):417–458. DOI: 10.1016/0304–3932(93)90025-B

11. Adhikari D. R., Rao S., Boudreaux D. Can US fiscal stimulus negatively affect US balance of trade? Journal of Applied Business and Economics. 2021;23(4):224–232.

12. Chen H., Singh B., Aru W. S. Relationship between government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from Vanuatu. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 2022;27(4):640–659. DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2020.1844610

13. Guo Y. M., Shi Y. R. Impact of the VAT reduction policy on local fiscal pressure in China in light of the COVID-19 pandemic: A measurement based on a computable general equilibrium model. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;69:253–264. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.010

14. Kim S., Park S. The effectiveness of capital expenditure in an endogenous growth model: evidence from US states. International Journal of Economics and Business Research. 2020;19(4):391–417. DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2020.107493

15. Maganya M. H. Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an autoregressive distribution lags approach. Central European Economic Journal. 2020;7(54):205–217. DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2020–0018

16. Mtui J. M., Ndanshau M. O.A. Fiscal expansion, adjustment and economic growth in Tanzania: 1967–2016. Business Management Review. 2020;23(2):106–125. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3637258

17. Peacock A. T., Wiseman J. The growth of public expenditure in the United Kingdom. In: National Bureau of Economic Research (General Series No. 72). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 1961.

18. Yossinomita Y., Effiyaldi E., Feranika A., Mardiana R., Hassandi I., Pangestu M. G., Fahdillah Y. Analysis of optimal tax ratio and efficiency of regional tax revenue: a case study of provinces in Indonesia. Journal of Tax Reform. 2025;11(1):74–99. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2025.11.1.193

19. Due J. F. Government finance: economics of the public sector. 1st ed. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin; 1968.

20. Lin S. A.Y. Government spending and economic growth. Applied Economics. 1994;26(1):83–94. DOI: 10.1080/00036849400000064

21. Gurdal T., Aydin M., Inal V. The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches. Economic Change and Restructuring. 2021;54(2):305–337. DOI: 10.1007/s10644–020–09280-x

22. Ho T. T., Tran X. H., Nguyen Q. K. Tax revenue-economic growth relationship and the role of trade openness in developing countries. Cogent Business and Management. 2023;10(2):1–14. DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2023.2213959

23. Neog Y., Gaur A. K. Macro-economic determinants of tax revenue in India: an application of dynamic simultaneous

24. equation model. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies. 2020a;13(1):13–35. DOI: 10.1504/IJE-PEE.2020.106682

25. Neog Y., Gaur A. K. Tax structure and economic growth: a study of selected Indian states. Journal of Economic Structures. 2020b;9(1):1–12. DOI: 10.1186/s40008–020–00215–3

26. Phuong L. N., Phuong N. N.T., Thu H. D.T. Determinants of tax revenue: a comparison between ASEAN-7 plus China and 8-European countries. International Journal of Business and Society. 2022;23(1):244–259. DOI: 10.33736/ijbs.4611.2022

27. Özker A. N. Tax wedge phenomenon and its possible analytical impacts on the investments in OECD. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance. 2020;8(2):41–53. DOI: 10.13189/ujaf.2020.080202

28. Sihaloho E. D. Analisis pengaruh penerimaan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia: pendekatan vektor autoregressive. Forum Ekonomi. 2020;22(2):202–209. DOI: 10.29264/jfor.v22i2.7370

29. Ormaechea S. A., Sola S., Yoo J. Tax composition and growth: A broad cross-country perspective. German Economic Review. 2019;20(4):1–37. DOI: 10.1111/geer.12156

30. Solow R. M. A Contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1956;70(1):65–94. DOI: 10.2307/1884513

31. Swan T. W. Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record. 1956;32(2):334–361. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1957.tb01279.x

32. Romer P. M. Human capital and growth: theory and evidence. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. 1990;32:251–286. DOI: 10.1016/0167–2231(90)90029-K

33. Bing X., García J. S., Gao Y., Chen X. Driving total factor productivity: capital and labor with tax allocation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020;150(C):1–10. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119782

34. Bournakis I., Mallick S. TFP estimation at firm level: The fiscal aspect of productivity convergence in the UK. Economic Modelling. 2018;70:579–590. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.11.021

35. Miyashita D. Public debt and income inequality in an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies. 2023;17(2):30–55. DOI: 10.1007/s42495–023–00106-y

36. Renström T. I., Spataro L. Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure. Journal of Public Economic Theory. 2021;23(4):639–659. DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12515

37. Takumah W., Iyke B. N. The links between economic growth and tax revenue in Ghana: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Sustainable Economy. 2017;9(1):34–55. DOI: 10.1504/IJSE.2017.080856

38. Guo Y. M., Shi Y. R. Impact of the VAT reduction policy on local fiscal pressure in China in light of the COVID-19 pandemic: A measurement based on a computable general equilibrium model. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;69:253–264. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.010

39. Liu T., Liu Z. A growth model with endogenous technological revolutions and cycles. Journal of Mathematical Economics. 2022;103:1–72. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2022.102774

40. Wu T., Zhang N., Gui L., Wu W. Sustainable endogenous growth model of multiple regions: Reconciling OR and economic perspectives. European Journal of Operational Research. 2018;269(1):218–226. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.10.040

41. Enders W. Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 2004.

42. Toda H. Y., Yamamoto T. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics. 1995;66(1–2):225–250. DOI: 10.1016/0304–4076(94)01616–8

43. Todaro M. P., Smith S. C. Economic Development. 12th ed. Pearson; 2015.

44. Fosu O. A.E., Magnus F. J. Bounds testing approach to cointegration: an examination of foreign direct investment trade and growth relationships. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 2006;3(11):2079–2085. DOI: 10.3844/ajassp.2006.2079.2085

45. Ghazo A. M., Qasrawi Q. M., Abu-Lila Z. M. An econometric analysis of tax evasion and its consequences on economic performance. Emerging Science Journal. 2021;5(2):211–220. DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021–01271

46. Yamada H. A note on the causality between export and productivity: an empirical re-examination. Economics Letters. 1998;61(1):111–114. DOI: 10.1016/s0165–1765(98)00154–2

47. Jaber Y., Kabouri I., Bouzahzah M., Ibourk A., Karim M. Economic growth and education in Morocco: cointegration and Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality. International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics. 2022;3(4–1):1–20. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6611974

48. Pata U. K., Kartal M. T., Erdogan S., Sarkodie S. A. The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany: Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes. Applied Energy. 2023;342(April):121138. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121138

49. Ray S. Unraveling labour productivity growth and economic growth nexus in India: a Toda-Yamamoto dynamic Granger causality approach. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Business. 2022;8(4):62–71. DOI: 10.11648/j.ajtab.20220804.11

50. Sankaran A., Kumar S., Das M. Estimating the causal relationship between electricity consumption and industrial output: ARDL bounds and Toda-Yamamoto approaches for ten late industrialized countries. Heliyon. 2019;5(6): e01904. DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01904

51. Arvin M. B., Pradhan R. P., Nair M. S. Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;70:468–89. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011

52. Bhattacharyya C., Gupta M. R. Unionised labour market, environment and endogenous growth. International Review of Economics and Finance. 2021;72:29–44. DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.005

53. Curtis E. M., Garrett D., Ohrn E., Roberts K., Serrato J. C.S. Capital investment and labor demand. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 2022;(29485). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3963713

54. Fu Z., Le Riche A. Progressive consumption tax and monetary policy in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Economics/Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie. 2021;133(3):271–93. DOI: 10.1007/s00712–021–00732–0

55. Todtenhaupt M., Voget J. International taxation and productivity effects of M&As. Journal of International Economics. 2021;131(C):1–24. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103438

56. Vatavu S., Lobont O. R., Stefea P., Brindescu-Olariu D. How taxes relate to potential welfare gain and appreciable economic growth. Sustainability (Switzerland). 2019;11(15):1–16. DOI: 10.3390/su11154094

57. Cornevin A., Corrales J. S., Mojica J. P.A. Do tax revenues track economic growth? comparing panel data estimators. Economic Modelling. 2024;140(November):106867. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106867

58. Otieno B. A. Public debt, investment and economic growth dynamics: do geographical proximity and spatial spillover effects matter? Regional Science Policy and Practice. 2024;16(6):100059. DOI: 10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100059

59. Sumandeep, Kiran R., Sharma R. K. Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth? PLoS ONE. 2024;19(5): e0301764. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301764

60. Romer C. D., Romer D. H. The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. American Economic Review. 2010;100(3):763–801. DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.3.763

61. Howitt P. Competition, innovation and growth. Innovation and Growth. 2009;246:15–24. DOI: 10.1787/9789264073975–4-en

62. Myles G. D. Taxation and economic growth. Fiscal Studies. 2000;21(1):141–68. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475–5890.2000.tb00583.x