Examining the Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Indonesia Through the Endogenous Growth Model
https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2025-13-2-129-140
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze the causal relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in Indonesia using an endogenous growth economic model. The causality analysis employed a multivariate setup using a vector autoregression approach, with the Toda–Yamamoto method serving as the causality test. Using time series data from 1983 to 2021, the research findings indicate that the control variables — capital, labor, foreign direct investment, government spending, inflation, and exchange rates — reflect innovation mechanisms and technological progress or total factor productivity in the endogenous growth model, which captures the relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in Indonesia. The results of the causality test using the Toda–Yamamoto method show that tax revenues and economic growth influence each other; tax revenues help boost economic growth, and at the same time, higher economic growth leads to more tax revenues. The authors concluded that, in addition to tax revenue causing or encouraging economic growth through financing economic activities, increased economic growth and activity will also raise the amount of tax revenue, both from the tax base and from nominal tax revenue determined by economic growth.
About the Authors
Y. YossinomitaIndonesia
Yossinomita Yossinomita — PhD in Economics, Lecturer, Faculty of Management and Business Science
Jambi
H. Haryadi
Indonesia
Haryadi Haryadi — PhD in Economics, Professor, Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business
Jambi
S. Nainggolan
Indonesia
Saidin Nainggolan — PhD in Economics, Professor, Lecturer, Faculty of Agriculture
Jambi
Z. Zulfanetti
Indonesia
Zulfanetti Zulfanetti — PhD in Economics, Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business
Jambi
References
1. Keynes J. M. The general theory of employment, interest, and money. International Relations and Security Network. ISN-ETH Zurich; 1936. DOI: 10.2307/2278703
2. Schiller B.R, Gebhardt K. Essentials of economics. 11th ed. The McGraw-Hill Series Economics; 2005.
3. Yossinomita Y. Tax policy in limiting the consumption of luxury goods. Review of Economics and Finance. 2022;20(1):165–171. DOI: 10.55365/1923.x2022.20.19
4. Yossinomita Y., Haryadi, Hodijah S. Determining the future direction and amount of tax revenue in Indonesia using an error correction model (ECM). Ekonomika. 2024;103(1):56–77. DOI: 10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.4
5. Haryadi H., Umiyati E., Dhora S. T. Competitiveness and export development strategy for Indonesia’s creative economy sector in the ASEAN market. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah. 2021;9(2):127–138. DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v9i2.11832
6. Stiglitz J. E. Some lessons from the East Asian miracle. World Bank Research Observer. 1996;11(2):151–177. DOI: 10.1093/wbro/11.2.151
7. Syadullah M., Wibowo T. Governance and tax revenue in ASEAN countries. Journal of Social and Development Sciences. 2015;6(2):76–88. DOI: 10.22610/jsds.v6i2.845
8. Alesina A., Perotti R. Fiscal adjustments in OECD countries: composition and macroeconomic effects. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 1996;(5730; August).
9. Blanchard O., Perotti R. An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 1999;(7269; July).
10. Easterly W., Rebelo S. Fiscal policy and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics. 1993;32(3):417–458. DOI: 10.1016/0304–3932(93)90025-B
11. Adhikari D. R., Rao S., Boudreaux D. Can US fiscal stimulus negatively affect US balance of trade? Journal of Applied Business and Economics. 2021;23(4):224–232.
12. Chen H., Singh B., Aru W. S. Relationship between government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from Vanuatu. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 2022;27(4):640–659. DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2020.1844610
13. Guo Y. M., Shi Y. R. Impact of the VAT reduction policy on local fiscal pressure in China in light of the COVID-19 pandemic: A measurement based on a computable general equilibrium model. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;69:253–264. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.010
14. Kim S., Park S. The effectiveness of capital expenditure in an endogenous growth model: evidence from US states. International Journal of Economics and Business Research. 2020;19(4):391–417. DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2020.107493
15. Maganya M. H. Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an autoregressive distribution lags approach. Central European Economic Journal. 2020;7(54):205–217. DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2020–0018
16. Mtui J. M., Ndanshau M. O.A. Fiscal expansion, adjustment and economic growth in Tanzania: 1967–2016. Business Management Review. 2020;23(2):106–125. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3637258
17. Peacock A. T., Wiseman J. The growth of public expenditure in the United Kingdom. In: National Bureau of Economic Research (General Series No. 72). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 1961.
18. Yossinomita Y., Effiyaldi E., Feranika A., Mardiana R., Hassandi I., Pangestu M. G., Fahdillah Y. Analysis of optimal tax ratio and efficiency of regional tax revenue: a case study of provinces in Indonesia. Journal of Tax Reform. 2025;11(1):74–99. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2025.11.1.193
19. Due J. F. Government finance: economics of the public sector. 1st ed. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin; 1968.
20. Lin S. A.Y. Government spending and economic growth. Applied Economics. 1994;26(1):83–94. DOI: 10.1080/00036849400000064
21. Gurdal T., Aydin M., Inal V. The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches. Economic Change and Restructuring. 2021;54(2):305–337. DOI: 10.1007/s10644–020–09280-x
22. Ho T. T., Tran X. H., Nguyen Q. K. Tax revenue-economic growth relationship and the role of trade openness in developing countries. Cogent Business and Management. 2023;10(2):1–14. DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2023.2213959
23. Neog Y., Gaur A. K. Macro-economic determinants of tax revenue in India: an application of dynamic simultaneous
24. equation model. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies. 2020a;13(1):13–35. DOI: 10.1504/IJE-PEE.2020.106682
25. Neog Y., Gaur A. K. Tax structure and economic growth: a study of selected Indian states. Journal of Economic Structures. 2020b;9(1):1–12. DOI: 10.1186/s40008–020–00215–3
26. Phuong L. N., Phuong N. N.T., Thu H. D.T. Determinants of tax revenue: a comparison between ASEAN-7 plus China and 8-European countries. International Journal of Business and Society. 2022;23(1):244–259. DOI: 10.33736/ijbs.4611.2022
27. Özker A. N. Tax wedge phenomenon and its possible analytical impacts on the investments in OECD. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance. 2020;8(2):41–53. DOI: 10.13189/ujaf.2020.080202
28. Sihaloho E. D. Analisis pengaruh penerimaan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia: pendekatan vektor autoregressive. Forum Ekonomi. 2020;22(2):202–209. DOI: 10.29264/jfor.v22i2.7370
29. Ormaechea S. A., Sola S., Yoo J. Tax composition and growth: A broad cross-country perspective. German Economic Review. 2019;20(4):1–37. DOI: 10.1111/geer.12156
30. Solow R. M. A Contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1956;70(1):65–94. DOI: 10.2307/1884513
31. Swan T. W. Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record. 1956;32(2):334–361. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1957.tb01279.x
32. Romer P. M. Human capital and growth: theory and evidence. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. 1990;32:251–286. DOI: 10.1016/0167–2231(90)90029-K
33. Bing X., García J. S., Gao Y., Chen X. Driving total factor productivity: capital and labor with tax allocation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020;150(C):1–10. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119782
34. Bournakis I., Mallick S. TFP estimation at firm level: The fiscal aspect of productivity convergence in the UK. Economic Modelling. 2018;70:579–590. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.11.021
35. Miyashita D. Public debt and income inequality in an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies. 2023;17(2):30–55. DOI: 10.1007/s42495–023–00106-y
36. Renström T. I., Spataro L. Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure. Journal of Public Economic Theory. 2021;23(4):639–659. DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12515
37. Takumah W., Iyke B. N. The links between economic growth and tax revenue in Ghana: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Sustainable Economy. 2017;9(1):34–55. DOI: 10.1504/IJSE.2017.080856
38. Guo Y. M., Shi Y. R. Impact of the VAT reduction policy on local fiscal pressure in China in light of the COVID-19 pandemic: A measurement based on a computable general equilibrium model. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;69:253–264. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.010
39. Liu T., Liu Z. A growth model with endogenous technological revolutions and cycles. Journal of Mathematical Economics. 2022;103:1–72. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2022.102774
40. Wu T., Zhang N., Gui L., Wu W. Sustainable endogenous growth model of multiple regions: Reconciling OR and economic perspectives. European Journal of Operational Research. 2018;269(1):218–226. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.10.040
41. Enders W. Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 2004.
42. Toda H. Y., Yamamoto T. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics. 1995;66(1–2):225–250. DOI: 10.1016/0304–4076(94)01616–8
43. Todaro M. P., Smith S. C. Economic Development. 12th ed. Pearson; 2015.
44. Fosu O. A.E., Magnus F. J. Bounds testing approach to cointegration: an examination of foreign direct investment trade and growth relationships. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 2006;3(11):2079–2085. DOI: 10.3844/ajassp.2006.2079.2085
45. Ghazo A. M., Qasrawi Q. M., Abu-Lila Z. M. An econometric analysis of tax evasion and its consequences on economic performance. Emerging Science Journal. 2021;5(2):211–220. DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021–01271
46. Yamada H. A note on the causality between export and productivity: an empirical re-examination. Economics Letters. 1998;61(1):111–114. DOI: 10.1016/s0165–1765(98)00154–2
47. Jaber Y., Kabouri I., Bouzahzah M., Ibourk A., Karim M. Economic growth and education in Morocco: cointegration and Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality. International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics. 2022;3(4–1):1–20. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6611974
48. Pata U. K., Kartal M. T., Erdogan S., Sarkodie S. A. The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany: Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes. Applied Energy. 2023;342(April):121138. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121138
49. Ray S. Unraveling labour productivity growth and economic growth nexus in India: a Toda-Yamamoto dynamic Granger causality approach. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Business. 2022;8(4):62–71. DOI: 10.11648/j.ajtab.20220804.11
50. Sankaran A., Kumar S., Das M. Estimating the causal relationship between electricity consumption and industrial output: ARDL bounds and Toda-Yamamoto approaches for ten late industrialized countries. Heliyon. 2019;5(6): e01904. DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01904
51. Arvin M. B., Pradhan R. P., Nair M. S. Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2021;70:468–89. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011
52. Bhattacharyya C., Gupta M. R. Unionised labour market, environment and endogenous growth. International Review of Economics and Finance. 2021;72:29–44. DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.005
53. Curtis E. M., Garrett D., Ohrn E., Roberts K., Serrato J. C.S. Capital investment and labor demand. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 2022;(29485). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3963713
54. Fu Z., Le Riche A. Progressive consumption tax and monetary policy in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Economics/Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie. 2021;133(3):271–93. DOI: 10.1007/s00712–021–00732–0
55. Todtenhaupt M., Voget J. International taxation and productivity effects of M&As. Journal of International Economics. 2021;131(C):1–24. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103438
56. Vatavu S., Lobont O. R., Stefea P., Brindescu-Olariu D. How taxes relate to potential welfare gain and appreciable economic growth. Sustainability (Switzerland). 2019;11(15):1–16. DOI: 10.3390/su11154094
57. Cornevin A., Corrales J. S., Mojica J. P.A. Do tax revenues track economic growth? comparing panel data estimators. Economic Modelling. 2024;140(November):106867. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106867
58. Otieno B. A. Public debt, investment and economic growth dynamics: do geographical proximity and spatial spillover effects matter? Regional Science Policy and Practice. 2024;16(6):100059. DOI: 10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100059
59. Sumandeep, Kiran R., Sharma R. K. Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth? PLoS ONE. 2024;19(5): e0301764. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301764
60. Romer C. D., Romer D. H. The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. American Economic Review. 2010;100(3):763–801. DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.3.763
61. Howitt P. Competition, innovation and growth. Innovation and Growth. 2009;246:15–24. DOI: 10.1787/9789264073975–4-en
62. Myles G. D. Taxation and economic growth. Fiscal Studies. 2000;21(1):141–68. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475–5890.2000.tb00583.x
Review
For citations:
Yossinomita Y., Haryadi H., Nainggolan S., Zulfanetti Z. Examining the Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Indonesia Through the Endogenous Growth Model. Review of Business and Economics Studies. 2025;13(2):129-140. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944X-2025-13-2-129-140