Банки и экономический рост: базовая модель неравновесия с пятью режимами нормирования

   Статья посвящена анализу вариантов применения моделирования неравновесия с пятью режимами нормирования. Актуальность этой проблематики обусловлена недостаточно отработанными по сей день механизмами регулирования деятельности коммерческих банков. Кроме того, в литературе по нормиро­ванию указывается на необходимость рассмотрения различных режимов нормирования, но не рассма­ривалось это в отношении банковского сектора. Целью статьи является разработка модели регулирова­ния, оптимальной с точки зрения требований, предъявляемых банкам. В процессе анализа центрального вопроса экономики и макрофинансов, а именно детерминант экономического роста и роли в нем финансового сектора, применялась индуктивная методология исследования и принцип экономии. Автором получена простая структура, характеризующаяся несовершенством информации и отсутствием клиринга рынка. Такая схема представлена в данной статье. В ней определена связь между кредитом и экономиче­ским ростом при различных режимах нормирования с различными последствиями для инфляции. Модель согласуется с эмпирическими данными, которые трудно согласовать с традиционными моделями равно­весия. Установлено, что в рамках этой простой системы нормирования банки, предоставленные сами себе, не обязательно обеспечивают стабильный, неинфляционный рост, и нет причин ожидать, что их поведение приведет к оптимизации общественного благосостояния. Обсуждаются также некоторые последствия проведенного анализа для дальнейших исследований и политики регулирования банковской деятельности.

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