Макроэкономические последствия изменения климата для стран Африки к югу от Сахары: аргументы в пользу устойчивого развития

Несмотря на то, что изменение климата имеет серьезные глобальные последствия, считается, что они непропорционально сильно проявляются в развивающихся регионах с жарким климатом. В данной статье эти утверждения исследуются с использованием панельных данных для 84 стран ОЭСР и стран Африки к югу от Сахары в период с 1970 по 2018 г. В работе анализируется эволюция температур в конкретных странах, а также долгосрочное экономическое влияние колебаний температуры и осадков на ВВП на душу населения. Используя панельную модель авторегрессивного распределенного запаздывания, автор констатирует: поскольку отклонения температуры выше исторических норм произошли одновременно во всех исследуемых странах, то одномоментно и значительно здесь снизился и рост доходов. Никакой существенной связи между выпадением осадков и ростом доходов не обнаружено. При взаимодействии «бедных» и «жарких» стран автор обнаружил, что колебания температуры непропорционально сильно влияют как на более жаркие, так и на более бедные страны Африки к югу от Сахары. Температуры в странах ОЭСР росли быстрее по сравнению с их историческими нормами, чем в странах Африки к югу от Сахары. И хотя более бедные и развивающиеся страны больше страдают от колебаний температуры, они, похоже, быстрее восстанавливаются после температурных шоков, чем страны среднего уровня. Автор объясняет эти результаты и связывает их с потенциальными последствиями для политики в отношении глобального устойчивого развития и борьбы с выбросами парниковых газов.

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